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Will China threaten German machinery manufacturing?

In the past two years, Germany’s machinery manufacturing sector has benefited significantly from a surge in exports to China, which has helped maintain strong year-end performance. However, this success comes with a growing concern: China is quietly becoming a formidable competitor in the industry. To better understand the situation, the German Federation of Machinery and Equipment Manufacturers conducted an in-depth study on the development and potential of China's machinery sector. According to the federation’s chairman, Klingeberg, one of the most striking findings was the large number of engineers being trained in China. “These engineers will play a crucial role in the future,” he said. While the quality of education in China may not yet match that of Germany, the country is rapidly catching up. The technological gap between the two nations in engineering has narrowed to just five years, which is both impressive and concerning. Over the past few years, China’s economic growth has averaged around 8% annually, fueling a boom in machinery and equipment demand. As a result, China has become the world’s fourth-largest machinery manufacturer. Although much of its production has been directed at the domestic market so far, this could change soon. A survey by the German Federation suggests that by 2005, China may face an oversupply of machinery, leading to reduced imports and potentially harming German manufacturers. In 2003, China imported 6.2 billion euros worth of German machinery and equipment, making it the third-largest importer after the U.S. and France. By the first four months of 2004, this figure had already increased by 17% compared to the same period the previous year. However, as Chinese manufacturers improve, they may soon start exporting their own machinery, creating direct competition with Germany, a global leader in the field. Klingeberg emphasized the growing threat from China: “In the low-end markets, we are already feeling the pressure. We need to act—either by forming alliances or moving some production to China. In the mid- to low-price segments, Chinese competitors will give us a hard time. But in high-tech and high-value areas, our strategy is clear: invest more in research and innovation to stay ahead.” The federation is also urging its members to take these challenges seriously. While Chinese machinery still lacks the international quality needed to compete globally, many Chinese companies are seeking partnerships, especially with Germany. Combining German technology with China’s low-cost labor offers a promising opportunity for mutual growth. Joachim Ilke, who led the study, believes China hasn’t yet posed a serious threat to German manufacturers. “They lack experience in Western markets, management expertise, and cutting-edge technologies. They haven’t taken international competition seriously yet. Their attitude is quite relaxed—they believe, in their own way, that the future belongs to them, just like it did centuries ago.”

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