The safety factor of our resources and environment is close to that of a completely insecure country.
The latest issue of *Outlook* magazine highlights a growing concern among experts regarding China's "resource and environmental safety factor," which measures the balance between human activity and nature, as well as the country's capacity for sustainable development. This factor, based on elements such as land, water, minerals, and ecological health, stands at approximately 1.73. Among the world's 10 most populous countries, China ranks second, but it is still far from achieving full resource security.
The article emphasizes that rising demand for key resources has significantly widened the gap between domestic supply and consumption, leading to increased reliance on imports. By 2010, China's oil import dependency was expected to reach 50%, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an increase to 55%. These figures underscore a critical vulnerability in the nation’s energy strategy.
Furthermore, China's per capita availability of energy and mineral resources remains alarmingly low. For strategic resources like oil, iron, copper, and aluminum, China's per capita reserves are only 11%, 42%, 18%, and 7.3% of the global average, respectively. The *Energy Blue Book* from 2006 had already predicted that by 2010, China would depend on foreign oil for half of its needs, a forecast that aligns closely with international projections.
According to statistical data, out of 45 major mineral resources, only 23 were projected to meet domestic demand by 2010. Notably, the external dependence on critical materials like iron ore, copper, and aluminum exceeded 50%—a clear indicator of the country’s deepening reliance on global markets for essential resources. These trends raise important questions about long-term sustainability and national resilience in the face of global supply chain fluctuations.
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